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Australian Mortgage Stress Index

A national indicator of mortgage stress across Australian households, helping professionals understand emerging fragility in the mortgage system.

Macro context indicators

Selected reference indicators relevant to national mortgage stress conditions.

Cash Rate
4.35%↑
Unemployment
4.1%↓
Inflation
3.2%↓
Wage Growth
3.6%→
House Prices
+5.4% YoY↑

Sources: RBA, ABS, PropTrack

Last updated: 1 March 2026·Methodology v1.0·Sources: Current inputs file
AMSI Level
41.3
AMBERof 100

AMSI remained in AMBER at 41.3. Conditions improved month-on-month (2.5 pts). Cash Rate was the main improving driver. Mortgage Rate contributed most to overall stress level.

-2.5 pts (-5.7% vs prior month)

Highest since June 2024

MSM3
+0.3
3M momentum
Higher Stress
100.0%
RED + BLACK share

Estimated borrower fragility distribution

Same four bands as the headline: GREEN (Stable), AMBER (Fragile), RED (Stressed), BLACK (Severe Stress).

Stable: 0.0%Fragile: 35.0%Stressed: 65.0%Severe Stress: 0.0%

Estimated borrowers under stress: 65.0%

Estimated distribution derived from the Axiom macro stress model using national mortgage market conditions.

What is driving stress now

Key contributors to current conditions.

  • Mortgage Rate· RBA
  • Arrears Rate· APRA
  • Cash Rate· RBA

Historical context

Historical AMSI

Selected periods (same scoring as current AMSI).

02550751002012201620202024Current

Current inputs

Maintained inputs used for the current AMSI snapshot. As of 1 March 2026.

  • Cash Rate
    3.85 %RBA
  • Mortgage Rate
    6.17 %RBA
  • Inflation (CPI)
    3.8 %ABS
  • Unemployment
    4.1 %ABS
  • Wage Growth
    3.4 %ABS
  • House Price Growth
    8.7 % YoYPropTrack
  • Arrears Rate
    1.68 %APRA
  • Household Savings Buffer
    12 monthsRBA

Stress momentum

MSM3 · 3‑month average change

Average change in the index over the last 3 months. Shows whether stress is rising, easing, or stabilising.

+0.3Stable — little change over recent months.
History Log
DateAMSIMSM3
1 March 202652.1+0.3
1 February 202643.80.0